With gold prices reaching an unprecedented high of over $3,200 in 2025, many investors are wondering whether now is the right time to enter the market or if they should wait for a potential pullback.
Lear Capital, a leading precious metals firm, offers insights into timing considerations for precious metals investments in the current economic climate.
“Economic cycles are in fact just a part of life,” says Lear Capital founder Kevin DeMerrit. “They’re hard to predict, but they’re not hard to prepare for. You can diversify in certain ways that will protect a portfolio and help you get through one of those economic cycles.”
Understanding Historical Price Patterns
To determine whether current price levels represent a buying opportunity, it’s helpful to examine historical gold price patterns, both in terms of long-term price movement and relations between precious metals and other markets.
“Since the year 2000, gold has outperformed the stock market,” says DeMerrit, highlighting the metal’s long-term value proposition rather than short-term price fluctuations.
And even in the short term, gold has outperformed a stock market that has seen its first correction — a 10% dip — since 2023. During the first quarter of 2025, the price of 24K gold ranged from a low of $2,623.91 per ounce on Jan. 1 to a high of $3,245 on April 14, an appreciation of nearly 20% over that period.
But Lear Capital’s analysis suggests that gold’s price movement should be viewed in the context of broader economic trends rather than focusing solely on nominal price points. DeMeritt notes that gold has historically performed well during times of economic uncertainty, high inflation, and geopolitical tension — conditions that characterize the current environment.
“The convergence of financial challenges we’re witnessing today creates the perfect storm for gold’s historic rally,” he said in a recent statement. “With gold hitting over $3,200 per ounce in mid-April, the economic headwinds we identified in our initial report are accelerating, potentially shortening the timeline to the $4,200 milestone.”
Factors Affecting Buying Decisions
Several factors should influence an investor’s decision about when to purchase gold in the current high-price environment. These include inflation expectations, interest rate trajectories, geopolitical developments, and personal financial circumstances.
Inflation concerns remain prominent in 2025, particularly with the implementation of tariffs that could drive consumer prices higher. According to Lear Capital’s analysis, Donald Trump’s tariff policies are creating inflationary pressures while potentially reducing economic growth — a combination that typically benefits gold.
Gold’s attractiveness has been reinforced by the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to keep interest rates unchanged, along with expectations of potential rate cuts later in the year, creating expectations of a low-rate environment that has historically supported gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Consideration of Alternative Entry Points
For investors concerned about entering the market at peak prices, Lear Capital suggests several alternative approaches.
One strategy involves looking at alternative precious metals, particularly silver.
“You may want to decrease the amount that you might want to have in gold, and instead look at the silver market,” says DeMeritt. “It could be on sale right now compared to where the price of gold is.
“If you look at history, the gold market has always led the silver market. Gold’s always going to have a move before the silver plays catch up in almost any time period that you could see since 1974. Gold markets run, silver markets come after it.”
He pointed out that silver may have significant upside potential relative to gold. When gold previously reached $2,000 per ounce, silver was trading around $49. In contrast, with gold now exceeding $3,000, silver remains near $35, suggesting an attractive valuation gap for those considering silver’s future trajectory.
Identifying Potential Buying Opportunities
While gold prices are at historic highs, certain market conditions may still present favorable buying opportunities. Temporary price pullbacks due to technical factors or short-term market reactions could offer entry points for investors with a long-term perspective.
“A worse-than-feared tariff announcement on April 2 could give bullion bulls a shot in the arm towards striving for the $3,100 mark,” Han Tan, Exinity Group’s chief market analyst, told The Economic Times. “Should risk-on sentiment make a comeback, assuming the U.S. tariff threats prove to be more bark than bite, that could see fleeting forays below $3,000.”
The gold market has historically exhibited periods of consolidation after significant rallies, providing opportunities for those who missed the initial price surge.
Investment Strategy Based on Financial Goals
The decision about when to buy gold should ultimately be guided by an investor’s specific financial circumstances and objectives rather than attempts to time the market perfectly.
Lear Capital emphasizes the educational aspect of investment decision-making, advising potential investors to “get educated” and “go back and look at the performance of a precious metal against the stock market, against real estate” before making purchase decisions.
For retirement-focused investors, the consideration of a precious metals IRA may be appropriate regardless of current price levels. “If you have a 401(k) or an IRA, and you’d like to take a portion of that and move it over to a self-directed gold-backed IRA, you can do that,” says DeMeritt. “You don’t have to [roll over] your whole IRA; you transfer any portion that you feel comfortable with.”
Rather than focusing exclusively on price entry points, investors should consider gold’s role within their overall portfolio strategy. As DeMeritt advises, precious metals often serve as a counterweight against economic turbulence, with allocation levels ranging from 5% to 20% depending on individual circumstances.
By centering on gold’s role as a portfolio stabilizer rather than attempting to time short-term price movements, investors can make more informed decisions about when and how to incorporate precious metals into their investment strategy. Whether the decision is to buy now, dollar-cost average into positions, or allocate resources to silver, the key is to align precious metals investments with overall financial objectives and risk management needs.